HKJC and JRA Ratings
Horse racing ratings for Japan Racing Association (JRA) and Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) meetings.
JRA meetings include: Nakayama, Tokyo Kyoto, Hanshin, Chukyo, Niigata, Sapporo, Fukushima, Hakodate and Kokura.
HKJC meetings include: Happy Valley and Sha Tin.
Detailed description below:
The reason I have chosen to concentrate on the HKJC and the JRA meetings is because of the parimutuel pools in these two jurisdictions. In Japan the turnover on JRA meetings in 2024 was ¥11.58 billion (US$76 million) per meeting, with up to 6 meetings held some weeks.. (see for yourself). In Hong Kong the turnover on HKJC meetings in the 24/25 season was HK$1.58 billion (US$202 million) per meeting, with 2 meeting a week in season.. (see for yourself).
The reason this is important to me is that a lot of this turnover is in the exotic pools. Such as Quinellas, Trifectas, and multi race legs. Given the advancement in technology it has become increasingly difficult to find edge in Win only markets where the price is very likely to be close to the true probability. Enter exotics where it is possible to pick multiple selections in the same race and the dividend is likely to deviate from its true probability. So I want to look at the markets with the biggest exotic pools in the world and pick the fastest and most likely horses to win in those races.
With all this in mind I have developed a form sheet for these jurisdictions that uses statistical analysis on a historical database to give the average punter insights into the probability of a horse winning a race and time based analysis of how fast a horse has been running.
Format Provided:
The sheet below will be uploaded 1-3 days before the scheduled race meeting. It will be left for at least a day after the meeting so you can go over the meetings results.
The EO (Early Odds) are uploaded within 1-2 hours of the race meeting start.
The JR is a statistical analysis of a horse’s formline compared to others in the same race. Unraced horses in that jurisdiction will not get a rating. It’s presented as a price recalculated to the race market percentage.
F1-3: is the Official Finish Time of each horse’s last 3 runs in that jurisdiction. The figure is in +/- % compared to the benchmark (or standard) for a similar run to the form run. A -1.4 means that horse’s run is 1.4% faster than it would be expected to run for a similar type of race.
L1-3: is the Official Sectional Time for the Last 400m in Hong Kong and Last 600m in Japan. The figure is in +/- % compared to a benchmark (or standard) for a similar type of races sectionals. A -4.0 in Japan means that horse’s Last 600m was 4% faster than it would be expected to run for a similar type of race.
SM: is the potential running order of the horses in the upcoming race. 1 means a horse usually likes to lead and may lead this race.
The form sheets are currently available in both English and Japanese. If you would be interested in another language feel free to contact me and I’ll see what I can do.
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